Buy Reasoning
EQR was a primary target I tracked closely in January 2026. The overall entry logic was built on the following assessments:
Structural Tungsten Supply Crisis. China began restricting tungsten exports in February 2025 and tightened them further in January 2026. This directly caused the European APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) spot price to break through US$1,000/mtu, surging over 200% year-on-year. EQR's dual-mine assets—Mt Carbine (Queensland) and Barruecopardo (Spain)—position it as one of the few non-Chinese tungsten producers in the Western world with scaleable capacity.
Strategic Asset Endorsement. In January 2026, EQR received a US$52 million Letter of Interest from the US EXIM Bank. This signal indicated that EQR's supply chain status had been upgraded from a standard mining operation to a national strategic asset, bringing it under the umbrella of near-term policy protection.
Position Sizing & Entry Breakdown:
| Date | Price | Units | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | $0.105 | 95,238 | -$10,019.94 |
| 2026-01-28 | $0.195 | 102,564 | -$20,029.93 |
| 2026-02-09 | $0.200 | 75,000 | -$15,029.95 |
| 2026-02-10 | $0.170 | 58,823 | -$10,019.86 |
| Total | Avg ~$0.166 | 331,625 | -$55,099.68 |
The first tranche on January 19 at $0.105 was an early entry before the market had fully priced in EQR's geopolitical premium. This core position provided an excellent safety cushion for the entire trade.
The second tranche on January 28 at $0.195 was a higher-cost chase. The main trigger was a significant volume spike and a breakout past previous highs; I assessed that smart money was accelerating its inflow and chose to follow.
The third tranche on February 9 at $0.200 was an additional buy at a relative high, anticipating further catalysts—emotionally, this addition was overly optimistic.
The fourth tranche on February 10 at $0.170 was an active buy-the-dip during a sharp pullback. The tape showed clear support below. Compared to the previous two buys near $0.200, buying this dip effectively controlled my cost expansion, locking the final average price at a safe $0.166.
Sell Reasoning
On February 13, I cleared the entire position of 331,625 shares at $0.210 in a single transaction, recovering $69,557.68.
The primary signals triggering the exit: News sentiment regarding tungsten prices began to cool in mid-February. EQR consolidated tightly in the $0.210–$0.215 range for three consecutive trading days but failed to achieve a valid breakout, and the price/volume action broke my pre-set stop-loss levels. Judging that short-term momentum was exhausted, I opted to liquidate completely rather than scaling out.
| Date | Price | Units | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | $0.210 | 331,625 | +$69,557.68 |
Final Result: Net Profit +$14,458.00 (+26.2% on invested capital)
Trade Review
Looking back at this trade in early March, although I secured a profit of over 26%, there are profound lessons in both execution and psychology worth recording:
First, I was deceived by a shakeout and sold too early. My decision to clear the position on February 13 was driven by the candlestick chart breaking my stop-loss/take-profit lines on volume, creating a sense of a breakdown. In hindsight, that was a classic shakeout. I was blinded by the short-term price action and handed over my shares.
Second, the immense value of scaling in and taking timely profits. Putting the regret of selling too early aside, this trade still had significant merits. It gave me a deep appreciation for the benefits of scaling in—without that ultra-low-cost foundation established on January 19, I wouldn't have been able to handle the psychological pressure of my subsequent high-priced entries. More importantly, I actually "took profits in time." I've had several trades in the past where I watched substantial paper profits turn into losses simply because I didn't lock them in. I may have sold early this time, but protecting capital is always rule number one.
Third, my exit judgment lacked clarity and the flexibility to "trade around" a core position. The reality is, even after I sold, my bullish fundamental thesis on EQR remained unchanged. My mistake was equating "clearing a position" with "ending all attention." For a stock where the long-term thesis is still intact but short-term indicators break, I absolutely should have bought back in for a swing trade once I confirmed it had bottomed out. A "one-and-done" mindset left me helplessly watching from the sidelines as it continued its run. Next time I'm dealing with a strong long-term conviction play, I need to optimize my exit strategy—either keep a core runner position or be mentally prepared to buy back in at any time.